Wall street broke down, all asset value besides the money suffer a disastrous decline. Once went up in option market of the type of avalanche of nonferrous metal price with infinite scene drop, the business day inside coloured industry also passes hardlier and hardlier.
On October 7, chinese aluminous course of study (aluminous share of 601600.SH) , cloud (000807, ) (000807.SZ) in pairs is released decrease announcement beforehand. Chinese aluminous course of study is premonitory profit of net profit of the 3rd quarter drops compared to the same period 50% , cloud aluminous share is more bad, profit of net of before this year 3 season drops compared to the same period 50%-55% .
The data that occupies national statistic bureau shows, 2008 1 ～ May, smelt of domestic nonferrous metal and income of implementation of treatment industry accumulative total eight hundred billion and seventy million yuan, add compared to the same period fast 24.88 ％ , accumulative total realizes gain 42 billion yuan, add fast inadequacy compared to the same period 4 ％ .
Meanwhile, begin from April, nonferrous metal enterprise, be like south hill aluminous course of study (600219, ) (aluminous course of study of 600219.SH) , China (industry of copper of 601600.SH) , Yunnan (000878, ) (industry of copper of 000878.SZ) , Jiangxi (600362, ) (nonferrous metal of 600362.SH) , Hunan accuses a group (coloured of Hunan of the following abbreviation) send debt early or late, the form can turn to dissociable debt from short-term financing certificate debt, almost include bond is all breed.
In increase hair share almost impossible, when bank credit is controlled, nonferrous metal enterprise chooses to send debt to raise fund early or late, prepare hibernate.
The winter of nonferrous metal
Nonferrous metal industry is established strong periodic industry.
Go with price of domestic merchandise on hand in light of situation, the maximum price of aluminous, zinc, copper all appeared in April 2006, lead appeared in October 2007. Since 2004, they walked out of the curve of special close: From slow rise and flying climb, to intense concussion glides after apogee.
Different is, aluminous, lead, zinc glides the trend is clear. relatively apogee, zincic price drops adjacent 60% . Aluminous, lead relatively apogee, also drop go 30%-40% . Copper is long with every tons 60 thousand yuan are datum line horizontal stroke dish, will drop in September situation begin apparent, the merchandise on hand October 7 all price already fell broken 50 thousand.
The wave motion of nickel is more intense, felt for a time in April 2007 every tons 450 thousand yuan tall, to on October 7, every tons all price already fell to one hundred and twenty-two thousand five hundred yuan.
Liu Min of analyst of China peaceful negotiable securities is amounted to think, of nonferrous metal periodic, suffer the effect of macroscopical economy not only, also rule of oneself of industry of be enslaved to be enslaved to. World economy is the closest an economy is periodic, begin 2001, to supreme already 2007 peak, second half of the year was namely 2007 by fill turn declining inflection point. But at that time, the price of nonferrous metal still is in perch.
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