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Magendatong: Add Xian oath an ancient earthen utensil for steaming rise urgently
From;    Author:Stand originally
Magendatong released a report to say yesterday, chinese monetary policy will grow change to exciting economy gradually, to this year the end of the year, chinese deposit reserve is led will reduce 0.5 percent, still will have 4 times to 2009 reduce. And if the United States is added considerably,cease, the Central Bank also may have our country twice to increase breath activity next year.

The Central Bank raised deposit reserve 5 times to lead first half of the year this year, accumulative total increases 3 percent, and did not continue to move again since second half of the year. Magendatong is forecasted in the report, deposit reserve will be led henceforth will not go up once more tone, turn to reduce cycle however. To this year the end of the year, will once of 0.5 percent reduce, and still will have 4 times next year reduce. To next year, chinese deposit reserve is led can drop to 15% .

In interest rate respect, magendatong thinks, put loan standard interest rate is in the major while of second half of the year and next year will maintain stability this year. But if interest rate of American federal fund is in,tone added the circumstance of 1.75% to fall 2009, our country next year also may have twice add breath, part to be spent with the four seasons in the 3rd quarter, every time 0.27 percent.

To the RMB, magendatong is forecasted, to this year year end, the dollar will be achieved to RMB exchange rate 6.6, the of 6.3 level that its are in prep above to will anticipate May, and will achieve to 2009 6.1, and anticipate before this for 5.8. These two data relatively Magendatong forecasts before this 6.5 and 5.8 adjust somewhat.

Nevertheless the report emphasizes thinking, although of the dollar go strong to will make the RMB appreciates to dollar exchange rate rein in, but of the RMB appreciate the process did not end, with the RMB that commerce adds authority to be a foundation effective exchange rate will still be stabilized appreciate.

The report says, put the amplification of delay trend as global economy, chinese government has begun to emphasize ceaselessly, maintain economic stability to grow quickly, get on inflationary stability in the level that can accept at the same time. And the development existing state of affairs of economy of the closest whole world and domestic economy makes clear, china will more and more the relaxation of apt whole monetary policy.

July CPI compared to the same period amplitude falls to 6.3% hind, magendatong thinks, inflationary level of China will continue to maintain gentle. Summer grain crops and the bumper harvest of autumn grain will make food price further fall after a rise, and after international commodity price is adjusted, PPI will achieve the fall after a rise after the peak value of 10% July.

Fang Xiong of Gong of division of Asian presiding economy was accepting Magendatong a few days ago when interviewing, ever expressed, below the condition that carries 10% GDP increase rate of the left and right sides in China, the inflationary rate of 5%~6% is reasonable, the inflationary level that can accept.
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